Will pay-TV coverage of the English Premiership persist?

A few months ago, I would have answered this question with a resounding, though slightly resigned, 'yes'. But a couple of articles I've read in recent days have made me think again. First, I found the latest update in the case of Karen Murphy, the Southsea publican who recently lost her appeal to the High Court to show live Premiership football in her pub, which she had accessed via (much cheaper) Greek satellite feeds. The court found this had breached UK broadcast rights, owned exclusively by Sky. But the High Court has not yet considered whether Ms Murphy - and others like her - are supported by European law. EU laws promote competition and free movement of goods, services and people across the EU, and Ms Murphy's lawyers will argue that they apply to broadcast services just as they apply to many other goods that UK nationals purchase from their European neighbours (such as cars, food, DVDs, books, etc). The court's decision on this point could have widespread implications for sports broadcasting in the UK. Definitely one to watch. (BBC article here)

The second article that made me question the sustainability of the 'pay to view' model was about China (linked via the title of this post). Apparently, Chinese football fans have deserted televised Premiership matches in their droves - as soon as they had to pay, in fact! From a potential audience of some 30 million Chinese football fans, WinTV has managed to secure just 20,000 subscribers to Premiership games. Where have the rest of the fans gone? Well, since Chinese fans just want to watch good football, often without a strong club or league preference, most have switched to the Italian, French or German leagues - all of which are still free to view. Sounds like an own goal for the FA, doesn't it?